Mark Shuttleworth delivers UDS keynote; sets goal for 200 million Ubuntu users in 4 years

Backed by the default Ubuntu wallpaper and flanked by some cute ‘paw’ logos, Ubuntu’s founder Mark Shuttleworth this morning delivered a powerful and honest keynote address to the attendees of the Ubuntu Developer Summit, currently taking place in Budapest, Hungary.

“First of all I want to say thank you. The whole community deserves a thunderous round of applause for what we achieved in Natty” he began before highlighting how “difficult and challenging” the Ubuntu 11.04 development cycle was, calling it a ‘profoundly challenging cycle’.

“Our work is not yet done, but we achieved much of what we set out to do.”

image

Painful transitions

“It’s perfectly normally for debate and questions around transitions like the one we made in Natty.” he said whilst mentioning that he himself was not above criticism, calling Unity a project that he is ‘very close to’, making him cautious that his judgement is ‘not coloured’. “I have no problem with being challenged [or] questioned.”

But its strong vision that is making Ubuntu stronger.

’200 Million Ubuntu users in 4 years’

“I think we’ve set a new bar for disciplined design in free software.” he said. “For actually going through a vigorous design process, testing work against users actual experience of that, testing our assumptions, iterating based on that testing, and ultimately shooting for the stars.”

“[Our] goal is 200 million users of Ubuntu in 4 years. We’re not playing a game for developers hearts and minds – we’re playing a game for the worlds hearts and minds. and to achieve that we’re going to have to play by a new set of rules.”

‘Real leadership’

‘We’re starting to see real leadership and innovation here in the Ubuntu community. My view on this, and it’s just one view, is that we’re [Ubuntu developers, are] in the crucible: We see what users experience;  we’re the conduit; we’re the place where the software lands in users hands. This gives us a unique perspective and gives us responsibility to take some ownership in experience that users have.’

And getting there will rely on users and developers alike trusting in the decisions made, for whilst governance should be open and transparent it is also important to trust the desktop team to be fully capable of making desktop decisions, the server team to make server decisions, etc.

“If you’re stressed by decisions that have been taken then ask yourself: [are these] the people who should be taking the decisions?”

Accountability

In an honest move Mark addressed the controversy and heated debates some of the decisions taken during the Unity cycle had caused – even going as far to say that he had ‘failed as a leader’ on the issue of Contributor Software agreements specifically.

Related posts:

  1. Mark Shuttleworth talks Windicators, changes for Unity in Oneiric, and whole lot more…
  2. Mark Shuttleworth talks Project Harmony, Unity, Windicators and more
  3. Mark Shuttleworth responds to the window button issue; hints at good things to come
Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.
  • http://twitter.com/TheSofox Sofox

    Damn.
    He’s done the right thing with this.
    I think one of the reasons Ubuntu gets a lot of heat in the Linux community is because people see Ubuntu muscelling in on and taking from a static market.
    Speeches like this remind us that there is a lot more out there, and what the overall goal of Linux is.

  • Anonymous

    Is there a video of the keynote online somewhere? I really want to watch the whole thing.

    • http://omgubuntu.co.uk/ d0od

      There will be shortly

    • http://profiles.google.com/samples.tm Tyler Samples

      It will be on youtube eventually. I’ve been looking for the keynote for about 10 mins and I can’t find it… so just gonna have to wait :/

    • http://profiles.google.com/samples.tm Tyler Samples

      It will be on youtube eventually. I’ve been looking for the keynote for about 10 mins and I can’t find it… so just gonna have to wait :/

  • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

    thats 1333 % more than the current !

    • http://www.manishsinha.net Manish Sinha

      I think a few years back some 15 million ubuntu users were estimated

      • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik
        • Anonymous

          Yes, I think he can do basic division.
          The point was that we have made the target of 15 million, which probably seemed a bit far fetched when that was set, so making this next target should also be possible.

          • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

            Any userbase target is possible if you allow yourself to just make up whatever estimates you want instead of disclosing your estimation methodology.

            I’ll remind you that Shuttleworth has never explained how Canonical has come up with the user estimates it has relayed to the press.

            Nor has that user estimate been vetted or certified via any transparent Ubuntu governance. When a Canonical exec repeats the multi-million estimate of the current userbase they are not speaking with the authority of the Ubuntu community..they are speaking for a corporate entity that as a self-serving need to continually build a perception that the userbase is growing at a steady clip to keep OEMs interested in paying for their engineering services.

            Furthermore, under direct questioning in an irc Q/A Shuttleworth has gone as far as to say that Canonical could make the current estimate any number they wanted.
            Shuttleworth has never explained how Canonical gets its userbase estimate.
            So take that 200 million goal with that in mind.

            -jef

          • Anonymous

            Interesting, perhaps they could just get Ubuntu to call home when it installs or when the internet is connected.

        • http://www.manishsinha.net Manish Sinha

          Thanks a lot for the really helpful suggestion. This link was simply killer.

          I didn’t do any calculation like you did. Just quoted down what I had heard.

          • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

            i think i forgot a emoticon :P

          • http://www.manishsinha.net Manish Sinha

            Same here :)

          • http://www.manishsinha.net Manish Sinha

            Same here :)

      • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik
    • Anonymous

      More like 600% going by recent stats from wikipedia

  • Anonymous

    :):):) he may me targeting 200 million virtualbox installations under M$Windows … or ignoring the hp webos … otherwise ubuntu will stay the intel whatever hardware

    • http://profiles.google.com/paul.sukys Paulius Šukys

      now I find no logic in your statement at all.

      • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

        that was a troll post .

        these types of posts don’t have logic !

  • http://profiles.google.com/andrew.craucamp Andrew Craucamp

    That’s a massive goal there Mark but against all odds they managed to pull through with 11.04 and all it’s hurdles. Maybe this one is achievable as well?

    • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

      Against what odds? They made a decision and stuck to it regardless.

    • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

      Against what odds? They made a decision and stuck to it regardless.

  • http://twitter.com/SuperHutagalung Parulian Hutagalung

    200 million? w.o.w !!!

  • Anonymous

    200 mln? Ubuntu have now about 12 mln? i just heard it, dont know where to get stats like this;)

  • Anonymous

    You forgot to include a link to the video! I wanna see it!

    • http://omgubuntu.co.uk/ d0od

      I’ll add in the video once it’s available to view ;)

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FX5ITOLLHVNOY673XBRGCKF3DI Freddi

    How much is the current number? The last thing I found on canonical.com 6 months ago was 15 million…

    • http://profiles.google.com/samples.tm Tyler Samples

      I don’t believe there is any true data, but it’s estimated 15-18 mill.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FX5ITOLLHVNOY673XBRGCKF3DI Freddi

        Thanks!

        So much for the 1% legend:

        200 million ≈ 10%

        • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

          it is a factoid .

      • Anonymous

        It would be nice if there is something more then just estimate, like real counting. There was one project, I don’t know if it still exists, to count all Dell computers that are using Ubuntu. It would be interesting to see this kind of project for all Ubuntu users. (sure it has to be anonymous).

  • Sarcasmo

    Mark my words. Shuttleworth will one day make a name for himself.

    Also, I’m beginning to miss all the “That’s it!”
    comments.

    • Timo Schneemann

      White trousers??? Serious? Thats it….

      • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/7GXJ4CL5A6A5YPPUO47UQXGP5Y Johan

        @google-b851276c589037cade2d5f59274038ec:disqus Yeah, let’s move to Arch! Everybody form a line.

    • Anonymous

      I hope so.

    • Anonymous

      2,000,001 Arch users by tomorrow!

    • Parry

      I’m not missing it at all, it was funny during the first 3 days. Then it started to get to me.

    • Parry

      I’m not missing it at all, it was funny during the first 3 days. Then it started to get to me.

    • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/KME6NDF3KTWK6NNPG5SF36PLBI Ambleston

      OK, Sarcasmo, just for you… Ahem… That’s it, I’m migrating to (insert distro/country/existence plane here)

    • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

      he already has!

  • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

    200 mil in 4 years? Maybe someone should tell Mark that goals have to be realistic and achievable.

    • Anonymous

      Don’t be a skeptic!

    • Anonymous

      Don’t be a skeptic!

      • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/7GXJ4CL5A6A5YPPUO47UQXGP5Y Johan

        @Sashin9000:disqus Of course he should be skeptical. I think the word you’re looking for i “pessimistic”.

        • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

          I think the word you are looking for is “realistic”.

          • Anonymous

            Perhaps he has a plan or strategy that renders his claim realistic? 3 years is a long time… and 4 is a whole year longer than it!

          • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

            I doubt it’, I’d love to be proven wrong, but I won’t be.

    • Anonymous

      It’s important to have “hairy” goals that seem unrealistic and maybe unreasonable. You need to have a “mission:impossible” above all the reasonable and realistic goals. And you need to give it your all to reach for that goal. If you fail, well.. Probably you’re in a better place than you were when you started out, so you actually win even though you didn’t meet the pronounced goal.

      • http://twitter.com/TheSofox Sofox

        Ah the old BHAG principal: Big Hairy Audacious Goals.

        It’s true though, go for the big “impossible” goals that really inspire you, rather then the “realistic” goals that you aren’t enthusiastic about. The former can often have a greater chance of success than the latter.

      • http://twitter.com/TheSofox Sofox

        Ah the old BHAG principal: Big Hairy Audacious Goals.

        It’s true though, go for the big “impossible” goals that really inspire you, rather then the “realistic” goals that you aren’t enthusiastic about. The former can often have a greater chance of success than the latter.

    • Anonymous

      hopefully, they will reach at least 100 mil, which is still a very good number :)

    • http://twitter.com/Hexual Ian ‘IZO’ Cylkowski

      @twitter-218079492:disqus “Aim for the stars and even if you fail you’ll still be in the skies”.

      • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LOR655GR4ZFHCMSV7FW5ROPSAA Cliff W

        For a few minutes, anyway.

        • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

          @yahoo-LOR655GR4ZFHCMSV7FW5ROPSAA:disqus this is a different scenario it is like we have done ‘import antigravity’ ;) (http://xkcd.com/353/)

    • http://twitter.com/Hexual Ian ‘IZO’ Cylkowski

      @twitter-218079492:disqus “Aim for the stars and even if you fail you’ll still be in the skies”.

    • Anonymous

      Well he believes in the platform just like every canonical employee. It is a great target and if we get close we still will be happy because we are growing. It took Windows 15 years almost to get brand knowledge and market saturation.

    • Anonymous

      It is achievable but unlikely. Considering history, 22 million is what he will probably end up with.

  • http://profiles.google.com/fi8er1 Mohsin Falak

    200 Million !! That’s one HELL of a goal….!

    • http://www.facebook.com/jordan.badangayon Jordan M. Badangayon

      a great goal… maybe not that achievable but still a great goal…..

      • Anonymous

        4 years is a long time dont count your chickens

  • http://profiles.google.com/lilianftp Moraru Lilian

    I don’t think that he can achieve that with Unity. He lost a lot of users when launched Unity… I tried it again and again and every time have to go back to Ubuntu 10.10. After a while the effects in 11.04 start lagging ur PC… Ubuntu 11.04: Fail, and why:
    1. Very High Power Consumption, ~30-40% more than 10.10 which kills my Notebook on battery…;
    2. Laggs after a while, I don’t have idea which causes them but I think that the effects are the problem;
    3. Unity is very unfriendly to those that use Ubuntu for the first time, they don’t know the names of the programs to write them in search every time;
    4. Switching to other app with the mouse is pretty irritating, u have to push for a while into the left to see the bar and switch… If there was a button to unhide the bar so u can press freely on the apps would be great(Gnome 3 pressing the special button. In Unity it grays the bar and u can’t press on the app instantly to switch between them).

    Btw, 11.04 is the only version that detected my Bluetooth on my Notebook.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IH4OBL3AGQV2WPP2OGHZRRKG64 Helder

      I don’t like Unity as well, but the power consumption problem you referred seems to be the fault of the kernel 2.6.38 itself, it’s not just a Ubuntu-specific issue. Hopefully, future kernel versions can address that issue.

    • Anonymous

      Unity is the right way to go. Gnome has had such a slow progress because most of the decision making came from Red Hat and Novell which are only interested in the enterprise, which thrives on the lack of innovation. We need other players pushing Linux for the consumer, and that’s what Ubuntu is doing. If you don’t want Linux to go there, you won’t like the direction Ubuntu is taking. The Linux world needs a shake up to do this, and the traditional big players are not interested. We need others that have vision.

      • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002167018726 Maximilian Reisch

        Ever heard of GNOME Shell? I’m currently using it.

    • http://twitter.com/MarcCoquand Marc Coquand

      about point 3, my friend just installed ubuntu and he has not had any problems so far and seem to be enjoying it. Surely people might need some time getting used to a new OS but that’s natural because it’s different and new.

    • Anonymous

      there may be power problems in the kernel but try using windows on battery and you will know how silly your statement was. i actually believe unity is better for a new user and is the right was to go. my mother has finally been able to use an operating system other than xp. yes there is something like a unhide button. HOVER OVER THE UBUNTU SYMBOL. and i experience no lag and im using wubi. try that for size big guy.

      • Parry

        Weirdly enough, I experience the same thing that he did. My battery also feels to drain faster using Ubuntu than Windows 7. And not so recently, [though I refuse to search for it] there was an article that pointed out that one of the Ubuntu releases was proven to drain more battery life.

        • http://profiles.google.com/patrickscott52 Patrick Scott

          It’s a linux kernel issue, Unity is not at fault….

          • Parry

            But I didn’t say that it was Unity’s fault. Thought he did. Maybe I should’ve clarified that. Was just going directly to ‘try using windows on battery’ part of your statement.

      • Parry

        Weirdly enough, I experience the same thing that he did. My battery also feels to drain faster using Ubuntu than Windows 7. And not so recently, [though I refuse to search for it] there was an article that pointed out that one of the Ubuntu releases was proven to drain more battery life.

    • Anonymous

      there may be power problems in the kernel but try using windows on battery and you will know how silly your statement was. i actually believe unity is better for a new user and is the right was to go. my mother has finally been able to use an operating system other than xp. yes there is something like a unhide button. HOVER OVER THE UBUNTU SYMBOL. and i experience no lag and im using wubi. try that for size big guy.

    • Parry

      About the ‘have to push for a while into the left’ issue: The top left corner instantly calls up the bar. So that should no longer be a problem. After getting accustomed to it though, issue occurred, and I downgraded. And for a while it felt like I had to adjust again and I actually miss the quick search feature. They did some good. I just have to wait till it’s mostly stable, for me.

    • Parry

      About the ‘have to push for a while into the left’ issue: The top left corner instantly calls up the bar. So that should no longer be a problem. After getting accustomed to it though, issue occurred, and I downgraded. And for a while it felt like I had to adjust again and I actually miss the quick search feature. They did some good. I just have to wait till it’s mostly stable, for me.

    • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/KME6NDF3KTWK6NNPG5SF36PLBI Ambleston

      1. Very High Power Consumption, ~30-40% more than 10.10 which kills my Notebook on battery…;

      You know that this is a bug with the kernel and not Ubuntu itself

      http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=linux_mobile_uffda&num=1

      • Anonymous

        have you tried it in 11.04?

      • Andrew Scotchmer

        Your kidding?  My netbook, and emachines EM350, came with Windows 7 and 4 hours battery.  Installed Ubuntu 11.04 and at full charge I’m getting 12 hours.

    • http://profiles.google.com/patrickscott52 Patrick Scott

      I don’t know what “special button” you are referring to but in Unity you can call up the launcher more easily by pressing and holding the super key, than you can either aim with the mouse or press one of the shortcut keys the show…

      • http://twitter.com/gonzf Gonzalo Fernandez

        What works like a charm to me is to set the bar to 32pix size and to never hide. After that change (and translucent top panel) I am soooo happy and liking Unity a lot.

    • http://profiles.google.com/gianmarco.mongardi Gianmarco Mongardi

      I agree totally with your statements, I’ve been a network admin for the past 15 years I work on OSX, Windows and Linux, and Even I find Dis-Unity counter intuitive, I find Gnome 3 a better choice, Unity feels a bit like the “Return of the Office bar!”. I advaocate change in the Linux desktop but I find Unity a step in the wrong direction.

    • http://profiles.google.com/gianmarco.mongardi Gianmarco Mongardi

      I agree totally with your statements, I’ve been a network admin for the past 15 years I work on OSX, Windows and Linux, and Even I find Dis-Unity counter intuitive, I find Gnome 3 a better choice, Unity feels a bit like the “Return of the Office bar!”. I advaocate change in the Linux desktop but I find Unity a step in the wrong direction.

    • Joshua Furlow

      I tried it hated it, tried it again and hated it again and then tried now and giving it some time I really like it now. I wouldn’t say the menu system is bad because you have to search. The applications are also listed into 4 main categories and you can easily find the applications you are most likely going to want to use or install as a new user. The dock bar hiding can be corrected and I would say was the most annoying part of unity. I hope they do add an unhide button as that would be useful for users they don’t know how to get the settings. I think by default they shouldn’t hide the bar, but allow those people with netbooks to hide it to give them extra space. Unless someone is using a resolution of 1024×728 you will have enough space horizontally to keep it unhidden. I haven’t noticed any lagging with unity yet, just the main menu tends to lag abit.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IH4OBL3AGQV2WPP2OGHZRRKG64 Helder

    I’m not particularly fond of the direction Ubuntu is taking (cough, Unity,cough), but, boy I do hope they succeed! It would make history for Linux as a whole! The latest estimates I was aware of, pointed at 12 milion Ubuntu users, but some of you go as high as 18. The 200 milion users goal can only be achieved if Canonical can convince the big computer manufacturers to bundle it, and the emergent tablet market may be a great place to grow, as it’s expanding rapidly and people are more open-minded to the idea of having anything other than Windows on it. We can’t expect people to spontaneously install Linux on their computers, that’s never going to happen in a massive scale: Most people don’t dare install an OS, most people don’t even know what an OS is.

    • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

      Ubuntu on tables, success, now there is an oxymoron.

      • http://twitter.com/samhorne Samuel Horne

        More of a biased opinion.

        • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

          More of blind fanboyism.

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3YATP2IRIAY3Z5F5IJATPVDD3E Juan

            Yeah, I don’t think Ubuntu would work well with a TABLE. Maybe with a tablet? ;)

            And I don’t think its blind fanboyism, if Android can be a success on tablets, Ubuntu can too. Of course not with 11.04, but 12.04 maybe? We should just wait and see :)

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3YATP2IRIAY3Z5F5IJATPVDD3E Juan

            Yeah, I don’t think Ubuntu would work well with a TABLE. Maybe with a tablet? ;)

            And I don’t think its blind fanboyism, if Android can be a success on tablets, Ubuntu can too. Of course not with 11.04, but 12.04 maybe? We should just wait and see :)

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3YATP2IRIAY3Z5F5IJATPVDD3E Juan

            Yeah, I don’t think Ubuntu would work well with a TABLE. Maybe with a tablet? ;)

            And I don’t think its blind fanboyism, if Android can be a success on tablets, Ubuntu can too. Of course not with 11.04, but 12.04 maybe? We should just wait and see :)

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3YATP2IRIAY3Z5F5IJATPVDD3E Juan

            Yeah, I don’t think Ubuntu would work well with a TABLE. Maybe with a tablet? ;)

            And I don’t think its blind fanboyism, if Android can be a success on tablets, Ubuntu can too. Of course not with 11.04, but 12.04 maybe? We should just wait and see :)

      • http://twitter.com/zc456 Squeaks

        If Red Hat can be successful in the entireprise, then Ubuntu can be successful in the consumer market.

        • http://twitter.com/sect2k Mitja Pagon

          Sure it can be successful in consumer market, just not tablets, the application set is far from touch optimized and unity is also hit and miss in that regard.

          • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3YATP2IRIAY3Z5F5IJATPVDD3E Juan

            Unity as we know it in 11.04 is clearly going to change A LOT, it’s too early to jump into conclusions.

            If we are talking about implementing 11.04 in tablets, yeah, that would suck :P

    • http://profiles.google.com/nieknooijens niek nooijens

      @yahoo-IH4OBL3AGQV2WPP2OGHZRRKG64:disqus you said “cough, Unity, cough”.

      well if you don’t like it, don’t use it, there’s alsway the classic gnome2 (and in 11.10 gnome 3) KDE, XFCE etc. it’s all about choice! choose the one that fits your needs, I like unity, and I admit it still has some issues and I’ve decided to live with that, but I’m not going blaim others for not liking unity, please make a choice for yourself

      • http://twitter.com/BradC Brad Christensen

        You cannot be serious. @yahoo-IH4OBL3AGQV2WPP2OGHZRRKG64:disqus probably already does use a different environment. It is perfectly within reason for him to “not [be] particularly fond of the direction Ubuntu is taking”. Try being less narrow-minded.

        For the record, I am in favour of Unity as a movement, although I have been deeply disappointed by its dirty implementation thus far; I use the classic desktop.

    • http://profiles.google.com/nieknooijens niek nooijens

      @yahoo-IH4OBL3AGQV2WPP2OGHZRRKG64:disqus you said “cough, Unity, cough”.

      well if you don’t like it, don’t use it, there’s alsway the classic gnome2 (and in 11.10 gnome 3) KDE, XFCE etc. it’s all about choice! choose the one that fits your needs, I like unity, and I admit it still has some issues and I’ve decided to live with that, but I’m not going blaim others for not liking unity, please make a choice for yourself

    • Anonymous

      actually unity is a means to become more independent.

      is not 100% there yet, but now they wont have to rely on upstream (which most of the time doesn’t care to fix this bug or add this feature) so much and release when they need to. control the schedules, what they need, when they need it, etc.

      it was not just for the sake of change…

      it should had been done long ago!

  • https://launchpad.net/~flimm Flimm

    “even going as far to say that he had ‘failed as a leader’ on the issue of Contributor Software agreements specifically.”

    I love it when leaders acknowledge their weaknesses.

    In this case, did sabdfl mean he failed to convince people of the value of copyright assignment, or did me mean that copyright assignment itself was a bad idea?

    • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

      It’s clear from the full video that he meant failed to convince people of the value. He’s stated he’s going to make an effort to make the case for assignment. I look forward to a debate on the merits. But I have very little hope that he’ll change his mind even in the face of evidence like the LibreOffice contributor uptick.

      He’ll try to make the case that the best thing unpaid contributors can do for the ecosystem is to voluntarily give up their copyrights to for-profit entities. He will continue to call such actions generosity in action.

      And I say, any for-profit entity which _demends_ you to give you _your_ rights as a developer to participate in a project is _manipulating_ you and _abusing_ your good intentions in order to make a buck off your expense. Such actions actually devalue contributed labor. Whereas contributing to a _commons_ where all developers and users have equal relicensing rights increases the value of contributor labor.

      If Canonical wants to pay developers for the value of those copyrights, then that would be fair and honest. But to require any unpaid volunteer, to sign over copyrights in such a way that it allows that for profit entity to proprietarily relicense that work and make a financial gain explicitly from the ability to relicense that work without financially compensating you as a contributor is _abusive_ behavior. Its the same abusive behavior that entities like the screen actors guild prevent by requiring movie producers to pay a fair wage for walk-ons who would otherwise just be happy to have their face in a movie.

      Shuttleworth has continued to fail to make the argument as to why its appropriate for Canonical to require people to sign over valuable copyrights to them without compensation or without legally restraining Canonical from making use of those copyrights in a bad faith manner (including proprietary relicensing.)

      I look forward to seeing the issues debated and discussed in public, instead of in private back channel conversations like Shuttleworth has previously preferred doing.

      -jef

  • https://launchpad.net/~flimm Flimm

    “even going as far to say that he had ‘failed as a leader’ on the issue of Contributor Software agreements specifically.”

    I love it when leaders acknowledge their weaknesses.

    In this case, did sabdfl mean he failed to convince people of the value of copyright assignment, or did me mean that copyright assignment itself was a bad idea?

  • Anonymous

    Well what else was he going to say? “we’re happy with our current userbase count”. An objective of these types of speeches is to inspire people… If the top people at Ubuntu aim for 200mil through sheer inertia the ubuntu userbase is going to be bigger than if they had aimed for a more conservative number.

    • http://twitter.com/MarcCoquand Marc Coquand

      well canoncial isn’t profitable yet, perhaps it has something to do with that.

      • Anonymous

        Canonical isnt profitable because they choose not to be because they are investing money they make into more employees and more people going to UDS. Just because they arent in the black doesnt mean its an entirely bad thing or that they are that far from becoming profitable.

        • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

          Also doesn’t mean they are _close_ to being profitable. A 300% revenue increase last year and they still didn’t see a profitable quarter? That speaks volumes about where things are at. It’s not like their expenses rose 300% in the same year.

          Canonical is a very rare duck in how its funded. Shuttleworth’s big cash pile allows Canonical to break a lot of the normal patterns that you would expect to see from any startup or venture capital funded for-profit entity. And also takes the pressure off to actually execute and win significant business.

          Canonical’s flirtation with multiple disparate revenue streams across the span of its existence is most charitably called an experiment in re-invention.

          If Canonical were a real company with traditional VC backers, Canonical’s executive team would have chosen a focus by now and strengthened that focus area and pounded on that segment of the market. As it stands Canonical spreads its resources very thin and its far from clear that its helped them. Far from clear.

          Who’s on tap to replace Levine on Canonical’s executive board and to spearhead their cloud server business strategy? Or is that just going to get fumbled?

          http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/05/06/ubuntu_cloud_man_leaves_canonical/

          -jef

  • http://twitter.com/Emacs232 Denis Cheremisov

    I don’t see any profit from having about 2·10⁶ occasional users. I can’t realize how anyone could use sh1tty unity full time.

    • http://www.manishsinha.net Manish Sinha

      I am sure thousands and thousands of people like Unity and are using it happily instead of going out on the interwebs and projecting your own personal opinion as truth.

    • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

      well i use unity full time .

    • http://mark-y-a.myopenid.com/ Mark

      I’m one of those not fully convinced with Unity until I used it. LOL! Using it full time now. I haven’t logged on to Meerkat since last week. I will say it still lacks a lot of features and a few more polishing needed, but it definitely has promise. It’s not sh1tty. Windows is sh1tty for me, but that’s my opinon.

    • http://twitter.com/foxoman foxoman

      I’m using it full time and I’m going to install it to my family .

      it’s very stable and more practical for my work flow .

    • http://twitter.com/foxoman foxoman

      I’m using it full time and I’m going to install it to my family .

      it’s very stable and more practical for my work flow .

    • http://profiles.google.com/patrickscott52 Patrick Scott

      You say you “can’t realize how anyone could use” unity full time and yet many people, myself included, do use Unity fill time…. what does that make you?

    • Anonymous

      Sick of reading your negativity every time there is a post that is related to Unity.

    • Anonymous

      Sick of reading your negativity every time there is a post that is related to Unity.

  • Anonymous

    200 million users that would be amazing

  • Anonymous

    Wow, just wow. First there was the famous apple reality distortion field. Now ubuntu users finally have their own canonical reality distortion field.

    • Anonymous

      At least you get to see the source code.

      • http://twitter.com/zc456 Squeaks

        And can modify, spin your own release, ect..

      • http://twitter.com/zc456 Squeaks

        And can modify, spin your own release, ect..

  • Anonymous

    Wow, just wow. First there was the famous apple reality distortion field. Now ubuntu users finally have their own canonical reality distortion field.

  • http://twitter.com/tardegrade tardegrade

    This makes me wonder if Shuttleworth has / is trying to, tie up a deal with a tablet manufacturer or a deal with Google to make ubunutu an installable option on the forthcoming Chrome netbooks (this latter thought is unlikely I know), because ubuntu on it’s own in the current configuration can’t achieve that many users and is even less likely a candidate with Unity.

    However if a deal to ship OEM with a tablet happens then the sudden development of Unity makes sense for the first time. There is lots of talk about the post-pc world and post-pc devices. Particularly from people that Canonical follow very closely. Maybe the belief is that in 4 years time the vast majority of ubuntu installations will be on 10″ / 7″ devices, for which Unity is more suited. That would explain a lot.

    Could we look back in 4 years time and recognise 11.04 as the point at which ubuntu abandoned the desktop? Pure speculation I know, but it makes you think.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LOR655GR4ZFHCMSV7FW5ROPSAA Cliff W

      That makes sense (aside from the “deal with Google” bit). Android sucked up several hundred million users in a short period by targeting a wide-open market (smartphones that aren’t locked to AT&T). Getting a slice of that pie would probably give Ubuntu a boost in overall adoption.

      That being said, that would be a sad day for me, since I despise my Android phone and generally believe tablets are not terribly useful for real work (unless your job can be neatly packaged up as an “app” and doesn’t require a mix of keyboard and pointer input).

      • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

        There’s no denying that Android is swooping in and winning the hearts and minds of OEMs. It really doesn’t matter what the form-factor is. Every consumer device were MS _isn’t_ Android will be there as the commodity option for OEMs to leverage. Including every single ARM based device from independent OEMs.

        I simply do not see how Canonical plans to push back against Android mindshare with OEMs and stay afloat as a business. Canonical’s plan was to sell engineering services to OEMs…but Android’s existence as an alternative really undercuts that business model.

        It really doesn’t matter if Ubuntu is better tech than Android. What really matters is Canonical’s ability to actually execute when it comes to delivering for paying OEM partners. And its not clear at all that Canonical has proven they can do that. Canonical doesn’t like talking about their execution as a business entity. But there’s no getting around it. The 200 million mark will require substantial execution as a business entity in partnership with OEMs. This is not a goal a grassroots community can make happen. Community has nearly zero lines of community to influence major OEM decision making. And all signs point to Android supplanting Ubuntu in consumer OEM mindshare.

        -jef

        • http://twitter.com/holyjihadbatman Callum Saunders

          I dont see ubuntu on tablets anytime soon.

          doesnt even have a suitable virtual keyboard.

        • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_LOR655GR4ZFHCMSV7FW5ROPSAA Cliff W

          I’m disregarding the execution aspect, since I simply don’t know enough about it to have an opinion.

          In any case, while it will be uphill against Android, the market is probably big enough to support smaller players. Given that most of the carriers actively dislike Google but don’t currently have many other options to compete with iPhone, another open alternative might be successful (barring execution issues). At the end of the day, carriers can successfully push a platform through subsidy schemes that make that platform’s phones appealing to consumers and I believe that might be enough to carve out a niche.

  • Anonymous

    200 million users would make Ubuntu enough of a mainstream OS that it could not be ignored by applications like Photoshop, Autocad etc.

    Getting there would probably mean a very different Ubuntu. Different in how it works and different in how it is distributed. Most users will not even know that its Linux, GNU etc. Honestly how many OSX users have any clue that they use a *nix system? Get used to changes like the move to Unity (I’m starting to like it, formerly hated it.) . There will have to be a lot of attention paid to make things simple for the type of user that not only doesn’t know anything about their computer but does not want to know. Perhaps the biggest hurdle will be to find ways to preserve the vision of Ubuntu the child in Ubuntu the Adult.

  • Anonymous

    hey i might get two more users by the end of this semester. my parent have finally accepted i use ubuntu over win7 when not doing CAD. (shame Autodesk doesn’t make a linux version)

    • Anonymous

      When we get the extra users they might port it :D

    • Anonymous

      @Dangerman13:disqus try Drafsite – it’s a really decent clone of AutoCAD; you can read about here: http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2011/03/autocad-clone-draftsight-hits-linux-beta/

    • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

      you can try FreeCad

      • Anonymous

        what formats does it use?

        *.ipt for parts?

        *.iam for assemblies?

        *idw for isometric drawings?

  • Anonymous

    hey i might get two more users by the end of this semester. my parent have finally accepted i use ubuntu over win7 when not doing CAD. (shame Autodesk doesn’t make a linux version)

  • http://profiles.google.com/roelof.everts Roelof Everts

    Agree with
    Moraru Lilian , newbee ubuntu users coming from MSwindows will be lost in the new unity shell.
    After the upgrade I was totally lost, after an hour I switched to the gnome shell.
    Confusing are the big icons, I miss simple overview of the applications.

    • http://www.facebook.com/jordan.badangayon Jordan M. Badangayon

      i have to disagree… hovering on the icons shows the name of it… so it is just the same… my sister have complained incessantly when I installed 10.10 because it was harder for her to search files and applications (we are both used to windows 7)… with Unity, she stopped complaining because she can just search it or click the icons… it is not really that hard to be familiarized with the icons… She’s loving Ubuntu now due to 11.04.

    • http://twitter.com/zc456 Squeaks

      Users wanting to switch from Windows to Mac, for example, have an open mind and aren’t afraid to learn a new shell or interface.

    • Anonymous

      Windows 7 uses the “the big icons” so I don’t think this is a concern for Canonical. The Unity task bar is just a hybrid of the Win7 task bar and the Mac doc. But it has a smarter “start menu” than recent versions of Windows, so I think it is better than its mainstream contemporaries.

    • Anonymous

      You have to go into unity with an open mind and dont be afraid to play about and see what you can do. Its not a hard interface to learn.

  • http://profiles.google.com/roelof.everts Roelof Everts

    Agree with
    Moraru Lilian , newbee ubuntu users coming from MSwindows will be lost in the new unity shell.
    After the upgrade I was totally lost, after an hour I switched to the gnome shell.
    Confusing are the big icons, I miss simple overview of the applications.

  • Anonymous

    I’ll be sold when I watch it, and it seems genuine. Furthermore… a good leader listens.

  • http://www.facebook.com/chriskerrigan Chris Marcus Kerrigan

    200 Million users would be an amazing achievement, and I don’t think it’s entirely out of the question. I’m glad Mark has come out and admitted that mistakes were made and they’re working to improve on that.

  • http://twitter.com/josian_220 José Antonio

    If this goal is achieved ubuntu will be something way bigger than what it is now. But I think that to get that number of users Ubuntu needs to start getting waaaaay more stable, I mean ubuntu is really stable now but it’s just isn’t uncommon to have like at least 5-6 glitches per day.

    • Anonymous

      5-6 glitches per day? Dude if you get that report the bugs and they will get fixed dont be part of the problem be part of the solution. We are aiming for LTS releases all the time so if you want extreme polish and stability stay on them. LTS releases do come out more often than Windows releases anyway :)

      • http://twitter.com/josian_220 José Antonio

        I do report the bugs that I know exactly how they appear, there are many of them that just happen for no apparent reason (I try to see if I can reproduce the same bug again but no luck) the thing is this happens too often :( but I think this must be something related to unity since this didn’t happen while using 10.10 so I just need to be patient (unfortunately though most people aren’t which makes that 200 million users a bit hard IMO).

      • http://twitter.com/josian_220 José Antonio

        I do report the bugs that I know exactly how they appear, there are many of them that just happen for no apparent reason (I try to see if I can reproduce the same bug again but no luck) the thing is this happens too often :( but I think this must be something related to unity since this didn’t happen while using 10.10 so I just need to be patient (unfortunately though most people aren’t which makes that 200 million users a bit hard IMO).

  • http://twitter.com/conorsulli Conor O Sullivan

    I thinkMark Shuttleworth has been reading The Secret! :-o OMG!

    • Anonymous

      lol so true

  • Anonymous

    Want to get to 200 million users? join the ubuntu adverts team!

  • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

    So where in the _Ubuntu_ governance is the decision made about copyright contribution to things like Unity?

    Mark wants to make the case that the _important_ decisions being made are done via a meritocracy. So point me to the _Ubuntu_ governance body which has made the decision to force copyright assignment on code contributors.

    -jef

    • Anonymous

      Man how can you get copyright assignment from 200 million users in 4 years? :)

      • http://alaukik.myopenid.com/ Alaukik

        what ??

  • Anonymous

    a 30 minutes video is out on the ubuntudevelopers channel on youtube. just saw it.

  • Anonymous

    Ok, well start with the basics first. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think the “Gee, this Aqua interface (I’m on a Mac) is quite dull, I think I’m going to completely replace it.” mentality will be that popular with main-stream users. If it isn’t easy enough and pleasant enough on the eyes from the get-go, you won’t be getting a lot of converts anytime soon.

    TL;DR Like I’ve been saying, your interface is ugly. Fix it.

  • Anonymous

    Ok, well start with the basics first. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think the “Gee, this Aqua interface (I’m on a Mac) is quite dull, I think I’m going to completely replace it.” mentality will be that popular with main-stream users. If it isn’t easy enough and pleasant enough on the eyes from the get-go, you won’t be getting a lot of converts anytime soon.

    TL;DR Like I’ve been saying, your interface is ugly. Fix it.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000895754408 Kieran Parker

    200 Million? How much market share is that?
    In any case we need big OEM’s to pick it up first! Am talking Lenovo, HP or Sony. (Not Dell…. For obvious reasons.) Maybe they should buy System 76 and start selling them in your local Best Buy :-)

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000895754408 Kieran Parker

    200 Million? How much market share is that?
    In any case we need big OEM’s to pick it up first! Am talking Lenovo, HP or Sony. (Not Dell…. For obvious reasons.) Maybe they should buy System 76 and start selling them in your local Best Buy :-)

    • http://twitter.com/jspaleta Jef Spaleta

      Not Dell? Why not Dell? From as much public information as there is available Dell is still probably the best OEM _partner_ that Canonical has to date in terms of revenue trickling back to support the money Canonical spends on Ubuntu development and release management.

      Though I admit its hard for anyone to actually see that if all the look at is the range of models with Ubuntu pre-installed. Smaller, newer, vendors like System76 might be able to put Ubuntu front and center on all their systems without much risk but how much of the purchase price of a System76 system actually gets back to Canonical to help offset the staffing costs to make Ubuntu releases possible? Has System76 ever contracted with Canonical for engineering or OEM level support services? Dell has, the record on that is pretty clear. Even in terms of the hardware certification, System76 doesn’t pony up the money to Canonical to have all their Ubuntu pre-installed systems Ubuntu certified by Canonical. That is significant. The certification program is a revenue generator for Canonical. You want to support Ubuntu for the long haul? You make the decision to buy a certified system knowing that the OEM you are purchasing from actually trickled money back into the development process instead of just leeching to make a buck selling hardware to you.

      And don’t look at HP to carry the Ubuntu banner. HP made its long term bets when it purchased WebOS and the development team behind with its Palm acquisition. I don’t see HP coming back to Canonical’s corner anytime soon. Whatever the fallout was over the shuttering of the Mi interface experience that Canonical built on contract for HP has most likely burnt the bridge between those two companies.

      -jef

    • http://twitter.com/Afrodiseum N.C. Weber

      Who knows, Ubuntu might just save Dell’s tarnished reputation.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Arkadi-Viner/1094401050 Arkadi Viner

    Well, I’m showing Ubuntu to as many people as possible.

  • http://profiles.google.com/aaylnx Adam York
  • http://profiles.google.com/aaylnx Adam York
  • http://twitter.com/Afrodiseum N.C. Weber

    What was the point of determining how to pronounce oneiric through consensus? Hello? Ever hear of a dictionary pronunciation key? It’s pronounced o-NYE-rick according to Merriam-Webster’s Collegiate (though to be fair, I pronounced it o-NEER-ick when I first saw it, too).

  • http://twitter.com/Afrodiseum N.C. Weber

    What was the point of determining how to pronounce oneiric through consensus? Hello? Ever hear of a dictionary pronunciation key? It’s pronounced o-NYE-rick according to Merriam-Webster’s Collegiate (though to be fair, I pronounced it o-NEER-ick when I first saw it, too).

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100000528522053 Ladislav Ezr

    He is hell right!

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_RQT3PUR3JN5WJ2ZETREERMBM4M Zamato

    Keep dreaming. Shutleworth is nothing but a Android hating Apple fanboy.

  • http://twitter.com/Jebril Pedo Bear

    Unity is a pretty unique idea slightly ripped off from DockBar and Mac. I notice Shuttleworth really likes Apple products and ideas now a days. So I see the direction he’s taking, nothing wrong with it. But while Unity might welcome newer people it certainly will push out a lot of people who do not want a ‘Mac-type distro’. As we’ve seen with myself and others. And that’s fine, that will happen, the real question comes are they going to keep the new people they bring in? Right now? I believe it’s a no. Unity is glitchy, unpolished, unstable, and still developing. It was too early to release Unity, but if they can fix all the problems with it, then maybe we’ll get somewhere.

    However the biggest reason I left Ubuntu is cuz of how they acted towards bugs, they would release many distros with plenty of bugs and basically leave it up to the users to fix it for themselves. They wouldn’t care, they might fix it, they might not in the next distro. They usually wouldn’t, and if you fixed those bugs, you knew that you didn’t want to upgrade, cuz once you get your system going well an upgrade would you usually just add more bugs to your system. This is the problem with Ubuntu they still haven’t had a solid release with little to no bugs.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_3BEMYXZR3QTBZF676TUAEKATHM syncdram

    The only important thing we need to hear that will be relevant is He Will Step Down! He’s made a mockery of Ubuntu Linux.

  • Anonymous

    I think If Ubuntu can move from an advance user OS to a everyday user OS it may meet 400million

  • Pingback: My Bookmarks » In-Store Ubuntu Displays, PCs Come to China

  • Pingback: حاسبات أوبونتو في 200 متجر في الصين | ولم أنتهي بعد !

  • Pingback: Ubuntu na tablety? Czy jest jeszcze miejsce dla nowego gracza?

  • http://gislikarl.com Gísli Karl Gíslason

    I hope they reach the goal, Windows really needs a serious competitor. Unity isn’t a bad idea at all, if they fix some bugs and add few levels of customization then I think it will be the best all around GUI ever made :D

  • Pingback: News : Ubuntu Machines On The Store | Nine's Blog